Both lenses over time. Today's multiple (★) vs. its own ~20-year history - that gap is what your distribution reverts from.
P/E & P/S over time (log scale)
P/E P/S dotted = median · log y-axis · ★ = today. Cyclical P/E spikes at earnings troughs (e.g. 2024).
Price / Earnings
Price / Sales
Fundamentals & growth (per share)
Earnings / share ($)
Sales / share ($)
Net margin (%)
YoY growth (%) - EPS / sales
1b · Segment projection & forward P/E bridge
Revenue, growth, profit projection, and a forward price bridge from projected EPS x P/E.
Revenue by segment / total
Growth (%)
Profit / earnings projection
Forward price from projected EPS x P/E
Core vs equity-included P/E over time
Quarterly core, equity marks, and GAAP-ish bridge
Technical setup & historical price
close 20-day SMA 50-day SMA 200-day SMA
RSI-14
Volume & relative volume
2 · Your distribution vs. the market
Choose how your terminal-price odds are set, then compare to what option prices imply (market-implied). The chart and edge table use the expiry selected in the hedge builder below.
Distribution source:
Assume EPS keeps growing at%/yr
Reversion method:
Manual anchors (price → % below)
You (selected source) Market-implied (option prices)
Edge - where you disagree with the market
2c · Scenario Monte Carlo - model your crash-and-recover thesis
A subjective regime model simulating thousands of price paths under your worldview: a possible short-term melt-up, a high-probability crash toward a fundamental floor (median P/E × forward EPS), then a multi-year recovery. Volatility rises in drawdowns (leverage effect) and the crash timing is calibrated to your stated odds. Select “Scenario MC” as the distribution source in §2 to drive the hedge builder & edge tables off this model. Tune the assumptions below; everything recomputes.
Simulated path fan - percentile bands over time
median p25-p75 p5/p95 fundamental floor melt-up level. Log scale.
What your assumptions imply
Optimal option overlay search - under your scenario
2f · Option value / probability calculator
Choose any listed call or put. Premium is the current option mid; probability, fair value, and EV use the active distribution source above, including Scenario MC if selected.
2g · Option what-if calculator
Pick listed options, then shock the stock price, exit date, and implied-volatility level. The estimate uses Black-Scholes residual value from each option's current implied vol, so it is a mark-to-model exit value, not a quote guarantee.
Cmd-click to compare multiple contracts.
Return curve at selected exit date (-40% to +40% stock move)
2d · Crash-convexity put spread - what an early exit is worth
A long-dated bear put debit spread (buy a higher-strike put, sell a lower-strike put), bought cheap and sold to close during the crash to capture the mark-to-model pop - not held to expiry. The grid shows what the spread would be worth if you exit at a given price & date (Black-Scholes, with volatility elevated in the crash). A spread caps the upside a naked put keeps - it’s a defined-risk convex bet, dominated on pure EV by selling premium (§2c). Use it as a controlled crash lottery.
Mark-to-model value if you exit early (per share; × = return on entry cost)
Expected value by exit timing (under your Scenario MC)
2e · Management policy - when to buy back
Takes the recommended structure and asks: should you close it early, and at what profit? Each rule is simulated across every Monte-Carlo path - the position is marked to model each week and bought back the first time the rule fires, otherwise held to expiry. Compares hold-to-expiry vs a sweep of take-profit thresholds (with a perfect-foresight ceiling), scored on EV, tail risk (CVaR), and how long you stay in. This is the “if/when to buy back” answer for premium-selling.
A collar protects stock you own: for one expiry you buy puts and sell calls.
Put(an option to sell at a set price) - you buy puts to set a floor: the least your shares can be worth.
Call(an option to buy at a set price) - you sell calls for cash now, which sets a ceiling: above it, your shares get sold at that price.
Pick the put floor and the call ceiling (or leave the call None for downside protection only). 1 contract = 100 shares. Each leg has its own expiry: leave them all on the primary for a standard same-date collar, or set different dates to build a diagonal / calendar. When legs span dates the payoff curve is drawn at the earliest expiry, with longer-dated legs kept at their Black-Scholes residual value (modeled at each leg’s implied vol). Recomputes live.
Unhedged Your hedge dashed: today's $ / spot / put floor / call ceiling
Net worth at expiry & expected ROI (your beliefs)
Your prob. uses the selected source, time-scaled to the expiry. Bottom row = probability-weighted expected outcome. Expiry-day values only.
3b · Advanced - sell a lower put &/or buy a higher call
Optional, on top of the collar above (same floor, ceiling, shares). Each extra leg also has its own expiry. Two extra legs:
Sell a lower put(collect premium - cuts cost): your downside protection now stops at that strike; below it you're exposed again (obligated to buy there). Use it when you don't think it'll fall that far.
Buy a higher call(pay premium): turns your short call into a capped call spread - above this strike a skyrocket stops hurting and you participate in the melt-up again.
Net worth at expiry - plain collar vs. advanced structure
The sold put removes protection below its strike (deep-crash rows get worse) in exchange for premium; the bought call lets the top rows climb again above its strike (melt-up rows beat the collar). Compare the two columns.
4 · ROI of your selected put, by terminal price & horizon
5 · Option prices - premium by strike & expiry
Premium = what one option costs, per share (×100 = per contract). Strike = the set price.
Puts (option to sell at the strike)
Calls (option to buy at the strike)
6 · EV harvester - where your view beats the market
For the expiry & distribution selected above: expected value per contract = your probability-weighted payoff − the market price. Green = positive EV under your beliefs. This is leverage on your view, not free money - the market disagrees, and these are only +EV if you’re right.
Single-option EV by strike (per contract)
“you P(<K)” vs “mkt” is the disagreement that drives it. Buy where your fair value beats the ask; sell where it’s under the bid. Short-delta trades (buy puts / sell calls) align with a bearish view; the reverse aligns with bullish.